West Asia in the Crosshairs: How the U.S. Ceasefire with Iran Is a Tactical Pause—Not a Retreat—in the Imperialist War for a 'New Middle East'

Anyone who claims that the Iran - Israel ceasefire is indicative of the U.S acknowledging Iran's superiority in West Asia and as such, its desire to back down from a full-scale war with Iran — exhibits a fundamental lack of understanding as to the greater geopolitical material realities of the world, and most notably, how imperialism operates. These are the very same people who argued that a war would not be declared against Iran, and who similarly stated that Trump would not bomb Iran.

Consequently, it is vital that we contextualise the most recent ceasefire agreement within the scope of imperialism, its objectives, the West’s tactical use of ceasefires, the United States demand that Hezbollah disarm within the next four months, the proposed U.S - Arab rule of Gaza and the Gaza 2035 Plan. Once we do, it shall become easier to apprehend why the very notion that the West will permit Iran to reign high and mighty within West Asia, is a naïve theoretical postulation that evades the empirical facts at hand, as well as the antagonisms of capital. What we are currently witnessing is the push for the “New Middle East”, which aims to subjugate West Asia firmly into the hands of the West, and in turn, weaponised against Russia and China.

BRICS (+) & The BR

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Iran is one of the core pillars of the BRI, BRICS and thus by extension multipolarity. Thus, Iran's position within the geopolitical economy is one that directly threatens U.S global hegemony. The reason for this is that the BRI and BRICS threaten to not only remove the Global South from the West’s sphere of influence, but more so the entirety of international trade and finance. The reasons for this are multifaceted.

Firstly, the BRI's industrialisation of the Global South would significantly diminish its dependency on the West's parasitical private sector, whilst simultaneously establishing the ideal conditions that would enable international bilateral trade agreements between the Global South states, within the framework of the BRI and BRICS. This means that international trade would gradually move towards structures and mechanisms of exchange that would fall outside the scope of Western trade and finance institutions.

Such a shift would also significantly undermine the dollar as the world's global reserve currency, which for the past several decades has been a means of exchange that has allowed the U.S to control and exploit the world economy at will. This phenomenon shall be and has been aggravated even more so by the establishment of independent financial institutions, such as the BRICS New Development Bank [NDB]. The NDB has already begun putting forward the requisite structures that would allow nations to borrow and pay back debt in their own national currencies, as opposed to the dollar.

In fact, at the 17th BRICS Summit held in Rio over the course of the past weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasised the need “to further expand the use of national currencies in mutual settlements," and “the creation of an independent settlement and depository system,” in order to “make currency transactions faster, more efficient and safer” among BRICS+ members. In the same speech, Putin proposed the establishment of the BRICS Investment Platform, which was subsequently adopted under Article 47 of the BRICS 2025 declaration. The BRICS Investment Platform aims to boost capital investment in order to establish financial instruments that will then be distributed to all BRICS + states, for the purpose of investing in industrialisation and the development of technology, education, trade and finance – throughout the Global South. This is in addition to the gradual advancement of BRICS Pay, an alternative to SWIFT, as a financial messaging system that would allow states such as Iran, to by-pass sanctions and engage in global trade, outside the scope of Western financial institutions.

Consequently, Iran’s position within the schema of the BRI as the vital crossroad between Asia, Europe and Africa, as well as Iran’s role as the stabilizing force for BRICS and its objectives within West Asia – places Iran firmly in the frontlines of the imperialists war against China, and the potential for a multipolar and fairer world. With the on-going crisis of capitalism and its inability to sustain profitability within the new emerging global economy, the need to destabilize BRICS, the BRI, and by extension China – has never been greater, as the ruling class is desperate to preserve the imperialist global structure.

Simultaneously, the novel economic opportunities that BRICS has to offer Iran, would allow the country to economically prosper and grow rapidly for the first time in decades, a reality that would further strengthen Iran economically, politically but also militarily. This is a particularly daunting thought for the West, which has already witnessed the resilience of the Iranian military and economy, even after four decades worth of economic and political isolation. Thus, an empowered and robust Iranian economy at the heart of the BRI, BRICS and most importantly West Asia, not only guarantees the success of BRICS and its influence in one of the world's most economically vital regions – but it shall embolden the resistance within West Asia, that actively opposes Western imperialism.

This brings me to my next point.

Iran and The Axis of Resistance

If Iran is permitted to economically flourish via BRICS, it will substantially increase the country’s economic, financial and military capabilities, and as such, its capacity to continue arming and funding the axis of resistance within West Asia. As per the Path to Persia policy paper, Iran’s support for the resistance directly threatens the status quo and America’s interests in the region, as well as Arab-Israeli normalisation – a structure that has been systematically obstructed for decades by the axis of resistance forces.

This is a fact that has been reiterated copiously over the past two decades, by the Bush administration, the Obama administration, the Biden administration and of course under Trump. Thus, an economically substantive and emboldened Iran will further galvanize and strengthen the resistance in the region, that in turn shall further dwindle the West’s imperialist aims globally.

Having stated the above, it is vital to remember that the axis of resistance is not dependent on Iran, but rather, remains a network of independent and organic armed resistance forces that were born out of Western imperialist oppression. Therefore, the relationship between the axis of resistance and Iran is one of symbiosis, as both require each other in order to survive. This is a dynamic that the West understands, which is why it has gradually yet incrementally targeted the axis of resistance first, hence securing the Levant, with the final goal being the isolation and targeting of Iran.

It is this aetiological processing that led to the brutal attacks on the south of Lebanon, the Israeli pager terrorist attacks and the assassination of the entirety of Hezbollah’s leadership. This issued major blows that weakened Hezbollah, and by extension, the entirety of the axis of resistance. Worse yet, as Hezbollah was hemorrhaging, its wounds were exacerbated by the loss of Syria, which, as per the words of Sheikh Naim Qassam, the new leader of Hezbollah – “provided key intelligence and military support to the resistance.”

Yet, although Hezbollah and the axis of resistance have weakened significantly, the fact that the resistance still stands, remains a splinter in the imperialist plans for the complete domination of West Asia. If the U.S is to maintain its global hegemony, Hezbollah must be disarmed and dismantled, which is why the U.S has demanded that Hezbollah must be completely disarmed within the next four months.

To be clear, such a request violates the terms of the Israeli - Hezbollah ceasefire agreement which was established in November 2024. As per Al Jazeera, sources familiar with the terms of the agreement have stated that the ceasefire provided “ambiguous language,” that failed to mention any sort of disarmament by Hezbollah.

Additionally, the demand to disarm Hezbollah whilst Israel still illegally occupies Lebanese territory, violates both the UN Resolution 1701, as well as international humanitarian law that lucidly states that people have a right to armed resistance against an occupier. Thus, so long as Israel persists on occupying territory in Lebanon, which it has in fact expanded since the ceasefire agreement, and so long as Israel as the occupying power continues its military onslaught on Lebanese territory – Hezbollah as a resistance group that was establishded for the very purpose of expelling Israeli occupation, has the right to armed resistance.

The United States and Israel's blatant disregard for the terms and conditions of the ceasefire, as well as for international humanitarian law and the UN resolution itself, is not surprising, but rather the proven modus operandi of the West. However, what is vital here is what these altering “conditions” mean for Hezbollah, Lebanon, Iran, Palestine and the entire region.

In response to these demands, Naim Qassam in no uncertain terms announced that Hezbollah would neither surrender nor disarm for as long as Israel continues its illegal attacks and occupation in the south of Lebanon. This declaration directly defies the demands of the West, and as such its agenda for the region, which is why such defiance will most likely be used by the imperialists as pre-text to justify a new brutal war on Hezbollah and the Lebanese people. It is for this reason that we are currently seeing a push for a ceasefire in Gaza by the U.S, one that shall most likely only last for 60 days and with no guarantees for a permanent end to the genocide. Why?

Because as in the case of the initial Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, as well as the first Hamas- Israel ceasefire agreement – the West and its proxy Israel uses ceasefires as a means to buy time and mobilize on another front, as they did in Syria, with the aim of weakening the entirety of the resistance front. Then, when the opportune moment arrives, they will resume their aggression as the axis is weakened.

Consequently, as the Israeli military is stretched thin between its northern front, its new ground invasion of Gaza, as well as its new expansive occupation of Syria – Israel lacks the military capacity to engage in a new full-scale war with Hezbollah. The only way in which it shall be able to accomplish its goal in Lebanon, is by achieving a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, which shall in turn allow Israel to mobilize whatever is left of its forces against Hezbollah in the north.

Whilst all this is taking place, calls for the bipartisan Bunker Buster Act have been reignited, which would authorize Donald Trump “to support Israel’s defense by providing the ‘bunker buster’ bombs, and the aircraft required to deploy it.” Albeit the rhetoric accompanying said Act is targeted towards Iran, these bunker buster bombs could also be used to target Hezbollah's underground military infrastructure, similar to how Israel used 80 JDAM bunker-buster’s in order to assassinate the former revolutionary Hezbollah leader –Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.

What we are therefore witnessing is the greatest existential threat Hezbollah has faced in its history, for either it lays down its arms and surrenders Lebanon to the wrath of Western imperialism, or it remains defiant, risking political and psychological pressures from within Lebanon, possible civil conflict, and worse yet, Israeli brutality at the behest of empire. The reason for this is that the fall of Hezbollah is a necessary prerequisite to the complete destruction of the axis of resistance in the Levant, and the subsequent obliteration of the Palestinian resistance. All of this shall in turn isolate, encircle and contain Iran, with the final goal of directly and systematically targeting Iran again – fulfilling the imperialists vision of the “New Middle East.”

And this finally brings me to the Gaza 2035 Plan.

Gaza 2035 – The New Middle East & Iran

If the West is to succeed in its goals to weaken Hezbollah and the axis of resistance in the Levant, this would isolate the Palestinian resistance itself, which has relied on this united resistance front in order to push back against the empire's oppression. If this occurs, the U.S and the Gulf states shall attempt to establish a joint rule over the Gaza strip, similar to that of the 2003 Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq.

To do this, Israel alongside the U.S shall attempt to establish what the Israeli Defence Minister, Israel Katz, labelled as a “humanitarian city” upon the ruins of Rafah – where the West hopes to entrap two million Palestinians. As they do so, the plan is to coerce the Palestinians of Gaza to undergo belligerent “security screening” that is meant to filter out the resistance units in the strip, which the West hopes shall allow them to cement their rule over the Gaza strip with as limited resistance as possible.

This plan is in fact laid out and labeled as “Phase One” of the Gaza 2035 Plan. During this stage, the plan also reaffirms that “ a coalition of Arab countries will apportion and supervise humanitarian aid in the safe areas.” Stage Two would bring about the gradual removal of the Israeli military from the Gaza Strip, and its complete administrative rule by the Gulf States . This would deprive the Palestinians of the right to statehood by means of complete military and political pacification, whilst also removing the international condemnation of Israel’s occupation of the strip, by establishing an alternative narrative that Gaza is now run by Arabs – a more “acceptable” diegesis to the international community.

During Stage Two, the gradual reconstruction of Gaza shall take place via the use of private Arab and Western companies, which shall in turn allow them to take over the key strategic ports of Gaza in order to have “unfettered access to Gaza's Mediterranean ports through railways and pipelines.” This would serve the Gulf States, and Saudi Arabia in particular, as it would allow them to connect Gaza with its NEOM e-city via high-speed train routes, among other similar objectives with regards to oil pipelines. This would also fit in well with the most recent Saudi-U.S tech deals, that aim to turn Saudi Arabia into a tech hub, in its delusional hopes to replace China’s rising tech excellence, and to curtail China’s digital Silk Road via West Asia.

This realignment within West Asia, or the “New Middle East,” is meant to gradually phase out and isolate Iran, the BRI, Russia, and as such to eventually target and weaken China.

At this stage it is vital to note Saudi Arabia’s and the Gulf States' role in this, for it is the Gulf States that armed and funded the ISIS/Al Qaeda-led regime change in Syria alongside the U.S, for the purpose of weakening the resistance and securing the Levant for its own geopolitical trade aspirations. Similarly, it is Saudi Arabia that has played a strategic role in the establishment of the new pro-Western Lebanese government. In fact just this week Prince Yazid bin Farhan visited Lebanon “for high-level meetings with senior Lebanese officials, including President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri – all held behind closed doors, in order to push for the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Interestingly, if this plan is to succeed, the Gaza 2035 Plan outlines how a similar plan shall be carried out in Lebanon and Syria, thus firmly placing the Levant under the rule of the imperialists – which would include normalisation with Israel. We are already seeing this take place in Syria, as the Al Qaeda leadership of the New Syrian regime has clearly stated its desire to join the Abraham Accords.

If this “New Middle East” agenda is fulfilled, Iran will be isolated and encircled within the region, placing it in a vulnerable position for further attacks. This would risk Iran's economic and political sovereignty, as well as that of the BRI, Russia and China.

To conclude, the reality of the situation remains that the political chaos within the Levant will not permit the West to secure its objectives. The new regime in Syria is unable to consolidate power, as Al Shaara’s extremist militias terrorize and massacre minorities, hence risking the stability of the country. Similarly, Lebanon’s internal social dichotomies among its various religious sects would destabilize the country if a war on Hezbollah is pursued. Hezbollah afterall remains one of the most powerful political forces in Lebanon, and the key representative of the country’s Shia population. Any attempt to therefore dispose of Hezbollah would be met with fierce resistance by its Lebanese supporters, which shall once again prevent the sort of normalisation the West requires in order to establish the “New Middle East.”

Additionally, the aspirations of pacifying the Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank is simply unattainable. In just the last month multiple Israeli media outlets have reported that Hamas still has around 40,000 resistance fighters, as per Israeli military and intelligence sources. This means that the number of Hamas fighters remains unchanged since the start of the genocide in Gaza. What’s more, is that the Israeli outlet Walla, published a report in May, which found that Hamas still has an arsenal of thousands of short-range rockets and a large part of its tunnel network remains intact. What this effectively means is that Gaza was and still remains a hostile battle ground that will not allow the West to establish its Arab administrative rule of the strip, nor to eliminate the resistance.

What’s more is that any Arab rule of Gaza that is seen by the surrounding Arab populations as aiding Israel – shall be met with retaliation that risks destabilising the periphery comprador states that the imperialists need for their own survival.

Thus, although the future of the region and the world remains unstable, what is certain is that the imperialists will stop at nothing to achieve their goals in the region, as it is integral to their grand objective – the defeat of China. Thus the Iranian ceasefire, much like the Hezbollah ceasefire and the Gaza ceasefire, shall not last. The West has not admitted defeat by Iran, and assuming as such is a dangerous postulation that risks grave miscalculation. They are merely targeting Iran via other fronts, so as to eventually strike Iran again.

Be diligent.

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