The Coming War on Lebanon: How the West and the Gulf States Plan to Crush Hezbollah

The U.S, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are preparing for a new imperialist war on Lebanon, for the purpose of destroying the resistance, and completely subjugating Lebanon firmly into the hands of the Western imperialists. How?

Let's break it down.

On the 12th of July the U.S envoy to Lebanon, Tom Barrack, warned that Lebanon "risks being occupied by Syria and Israel unless Beirut disarms Hezbollah."

He went on to say that Lebanon therefore faces an "existential threat" by two U.S allies, if it does not obey the orders of the West. What this means is that the U.S has effectively presented Lebanon and Hezbollah with an ultimatum, an ultimatum that has received ample support by some of the largest Western imperialist Think Tanks, such as the Washington Institute and Chatham House. In fact, both aforementioned Think Tank’s have published policy papers in just the past 5 days, that call for the U.S to capitalize on the current momentum in Lebanon, in order to dismantle Hezbollah and take control over Lebanon, once and for all.

The propositions advocated by both aforementioned war-hawk policy institutes, as well as Tom Barrack himself, coerce Hezbollah to either surrender the entirety of Lebanon to the West, or Lebanon risks descending into war, a potential civil war that shall be instigated by the U.S and the Gulf States, and aided by Syria as well as Israel — "two U.S allies."

The means by which the West hopes to accomplish the dismantlement of Hezbollah, are multifaceted. Firstly, given the fact that Lebanon remains a colony of the Western financial capitalist class via imperialist institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank — Lebanon's dependence on the imperial core is now being exploited in order to coerce the Lebanese state to disarm its resistance and surrender its sovereignty.

Lebanon's economic crisis is being aggravated even more so by Israel's persistent bombardment of vital infrastructure that has cost Lebanon over $8.5 billion in damages, so as to coerce Lebanon into obeying the West. As it currently stands, the condition by which to provide Lebanon with access to international loans from Western institutions in order to "rebuild" their country, is contingent entirely on the Lebanese state's willingness to disarm Hezbollah.

This political extortion by the West is accompanied with the knowledge that any attempt by the Lebanese state to disarm and dismantle Hezbollah, shall be met with fierce retaliation by the Lebanese Shia communities, as well as by all those who support Hezbollah within the other religious sects inside of Lebanon. Consequently, this increases the likelihood of a potential civil war in Lebanon, which is a reality that the U.S special envoy, Tom Barrack, reaffirmed himself.

As I have reiterated on copious occasions in the past — the West desires a civil war in Lebanon, as it shall provide Israel and now Syria, with the requisite pretext to infiltrate Lebanon, in the hopes of re-establishing the 80's era status quo.

Additionally, given the fact that Israel lacks the military capacity to directly defeat Hezbollah in a full scale war, a civil war or at the very least, the complete fracturing of Lebanon's political and civil society, would work as a mechanism by which to politically and militarily undermine Hezbollah within their home base — helping the West come closer to accomplishing its aim.

Israel and Syria would then mobilise in order to target Hezbollah under the pretext of "defending their own borders," hence Tom Barrack's remarks with regards to the potential occupation of Lebanon itself by both aforementioned U.S allies within the region.

Secondly, whilst all this is taking place, Syrian terror cells were arrested in Beirut on July 1st, for "plotting a day of attacks mirroring Israel's pager assault," according to Lebanese security forces. These Syrian terror cells are part of the Al Qaeda affiliated HTS, as well as the newly established Saraya Ansar Al Sunnah terrorist group — formed on February 1st 2025, after de jure splitting from HTS.

For context, Saraya Ansar Al Sunnah, is an anti-Christian, anti-Shia, anti- Druze and anti-Alawite terrorist Islamic militant group that was part of HTS, that now operates from Syria as well as Lebanon.

Saraya Ansar Al Sunnah, is the same group that has claimed responsibility for the most recent fires within the coastal predominately Alawite regions of Syria, that caused many of the Alawites to flee their homes and/or die — the same community that has been systematically targeted and massacred by HTS and its affiliated groups, since coming to power in December of 2024. Similarly, Saraya Ansar Al Sunnah is also the group that claimed responsibility for the June 22nd terrorist bombing of the Mar Elias Christian Orthodox church in Damascus, which killed and injured dozens of Syrian Christians, countering the official narrative of the new Syrian regime, that it was ISIS, a claim that even The Washington Institute rejects.

To be clear, albeit Saraya Ansar Al Sunnah has claimed to have split from HTS on the grounds that HTS "softened its stance towards establishing an Islamic State" — the new HTS regime's failure to thwart and/or punish Saraya Ansar Al Sunnah for its systematic slaughtering of minorities in Syria, is testament that the split is merely in name. HTS is allowing its terrorist Islamic extremists partners to carry out pogroms and attacks against minorities in Syria, whilst HTS pleads innocent via plausible deniability.

With that in mind, according to reports from The Nation, as well as copious Syrian media outlets from the 12th of July — the new HTS regime is demanding that the Lebanese authorities release thousands of Syrian prisoners that are known to be Islamic extremist terrorists, with links to Al Qaeda and ISIS — much like HTS itself.

These demands have exacerbated the pressure on the Lebanese state and its security forces, who are worried that the release of thousands of Islamic extremists that carried out attacks on Lebanon's borders just a few months ago, and that have established terror cells inside the country — will destabilise the country and risk major security threats within Lebanon itself. These political demands also coincide with the pressure Lebanon is facing from the West and the Gulf States, in order to disarm Hezbollah — the only force that can defend Lebanon's sovereignty. It is also worth noting that there are 1.5 million Syrian refugees inside of Lebanon, whose status could be abused by the West, as a means by which to further amplify border issues and internal civil unrest within Lebanon itself.

Thus, if Lebanon capitulates to the external political pressures of the imperialists and releases thousands of Al Qaeda terrorists that have also established cells inside Lebanon, then it would be jeopardizing its own security, whilst also risking sectarian violence that could plunge the country into a potential civil war. As a result, this would construct the ideal hostile conditions within Hezbollah's home territory, thus serving Western interests, whilst also providing Syria and Israel with the ideal pretext so as to involve themselves within Lebanon itself.

This is precisely the "existential threat" that Tom Barrack was referring to. If this scenario is to occur, Hezbollah would be facing two external Western-backed military threats, as well as internal political, economic and military pressures by the Lebanese state.

Additionally, the internal conflicts that could arise within Lebanon itself, could see certain Lebanese political parties, such as the Lebanese Forces which is the Christian Lebanese party — politically disrupt the Lebanese state. In fact, the party leader of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Gaegea, is pushing the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah immediately, even at the risk of a potential civil war. By exploiting the Western - backed "disarm the resistance" slogan, Geagea is also reportedly considering putting pressure on his own ministers in order to resign, so as to disrupt the Lebanese government, jeopardizing the unity of the Lebanese state, and exposing the country to political and social schisms that would serve the imperialists aims in Lebanon.

In fact, it is these internal dichotomies within Lebanese society that have brought about the establishment of militias such as the "Soldiers of God" — a far-right Christian armed group, that although very small, is emblematic of the sort of chaos Lebanon could find itself in, as the West continues to agitate Lebanon's political contradictions.

Finally, what's most concerning, is that according to Tom Barrack, "the U.S, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are ready to aid the Lebanese state if it takes the lead" — meaning that all aforementioned countries are ready to militarily, economically and politically, provide the Lebanese state with whatever it needs in order to destroy Hezbollah and placate the Lebanese people. These are the very same countries that actively armed, funded and trained Al Qaeda and ISIS groups such as HTS in Syria, in order to bring about imperialist-led regime change in the country. These very same actors are now overtly stating that they will provide the necessary support in order to effectively destroy Hezbollah, in what can only be described as an imperialist-led war on Lebanon, that much like in Syria, shall be labelled as a "civil war."

It is thus no surprise that Saudi Prince, Yazid bin Farhan, visited Lebanon in the beginning of July for high level talks with President Aoun, in order to put pressure for the disarmament of Hezbollah. Similarly, Saudi Arabia has also warned Lebanon that it shall provide no financial assistance in order to re-build the country, unless Hezbollah is dismantled – mirroring the same form of economic duress imposed by the West via the IMF, both exploiting Lebanon’s dire economic conditions and Israel’s brutal war on the country, in order to blackmail the Lebanese leadership into submission. This particular policy concerning the use of Saudi aid to Lebanon as a form of blackmail, was in fact proposed by The Washington Institute, thus highlighting yet again the complicity of the Arab Gulf States in the crimes of imperialism in West Asia, as they are nothing more than comprador bourgeois leaders, whose interests are tied to capital in the imperial core.

Having stated all the above, the degree to which the imperialists shall succeed in Lebanon is contingent on the Lebanese people's ability to remain united against Western interventionism and political infiltration. Moreover, the memory of the country's past civil war as well as the brutal occupation of Lebanon by both Israel and Syria just 20 years ago — shall also play a crucial role as to how the Lebanese people respond to foreign aggression and influence in their country. This could therefore be a moment whereby the resistance could consolidate power, or the entirety of Lebanon becomes all the more fragmented and as such, susceptible to foreign interference and oppression. The coming weeks or months, shall illuminate which of these two scenarios is most likely. However, one thing is for certain, the on-going crisis of capitalism no longer permits Lebanon to retain the status quo of the past 20 years. For better or for worse, the material conditions and the innate contradictions of capitalism are generating vast changes on the global stage, changes that we must be prepared for.

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